In the House, things are much less contentious. The seats in the Senate are currently split evenly between each party’s caucus, which is a lot more peaceful. You’ve got seven races on RealClearPolitics’ toss-up list that will likely determine who controls Congress. Unfortunately, there isn’t much polling in several of the races.
After deciding to run for another term, it is expected that Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) will keep his seat. Hassan’s poor approval ratings continue, suggesting a significant pickup opportunity for the GOP in New Hampshire. Kelly is thought to be vulnerable, and in a probable red wave scenario, North Carolina Republican Ted Budd will likely be heading to Washington.
If the GOP does not win all four of the seats that were listed above to gain a majority, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania will be the contests that decide the Senate. The GOP will almost certainly have to take one of the three to win. Dr. Oz will be the Republican nominee in Georgia, where Herschel Walker is a strong favorite over Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s support for Dr. Oz may have complicated matters; this race is now considered a toss-up.
Then there’s Nevada. Despite its obscurity, it’s not a race that Democrats hear much about. According to new poll numbers from the state, however, they may be in for a rude awakening.
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll
Race for U.S. Senate
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 40%
Adam Laxalt (R) 43%
None of these candidates 3%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 39%
Sam Brown (R) 40%
None of these candidates 5%
— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022
An incumbent who is down at 40 percent and losing head-to-head against the likely nominee (Adam Laxalt is currently favored to win the Republican primary) is red alert territory. Nevada was thought to be a Democratic blue state that would stay that way, and if it goes red this cycle, it will have a significant impact on the following several election cycles. Could we see a similar trend in Colorado, another state that Democrats just assumed would always be blue? I’m not going to go there yet, but this isn’t the type of play for which the left was looking.
Regardless, the Nevada mid-term election is fascinating for a number of reasons. One is that it will be a test of how much ground Republicans have gained with Hispanic voters as it serves as ground zero for this discussion in the state. Going all the way back to the 2020 presidential election, there was significant movement away from the GOP. But it was really in 2021 that something monumental occurred, according on my calculations. If a near majority of Hispanics vote Republican, as some predict will happen in 2020, it would deliver a decisive victory in 2022 and more importantly, lay the groundwork for further victories in the 2024 elections, including the presidency.
For decades, the Left has taken Hispanics for granted, assuming that “demographics are destiny” and that their votes are beyond reproach. If this shifts — as it will in Nevada this election cycle — it will be a disaster for the left.
Returning to the main issue at hand, however, a Democratic Senate loss in Nevada would be the death knell for the party. Even if Republicans lose in Pennsylvania and Georgia, which is improbable owing to political reality, a triumph in Nevada will seal victory. Yes, I’m assuming wins and holds in other states but it’s impossible for the GOP to win in Nevada but lose everywhere else . That’s not how midterm elections work.
Nothing is certain, but I’m confident that the Republican Party is in a far better position now than it was at this time last year.